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Friday 3 November 2023

With Lowering Dollar Exchange Values

I'm afraid the reality is that when a national currency goes down in value - well, it is going down!

And it goes down because it is less valuable. Not because its domestic economy is strong and things are great, and 'inflation is beaten.' It goes down because things are bad.

And when it goes down imports cost more and so inflation rises some more.

Liquidity now is more a factor to do with relative flows and not completely just some concept about immediate exchange capability of a money token. 

Takes some guts to wear
the red shoes in the middle there.

With that aspect in mind it is possible to say that the main problem today is liquidity. There is a significant deterioration in the ability of the Federal Reserve to attain continuous pro rata liquidity when it sells whatever it has to sell to get the currency to buy up Treasury Notes against the market tendency.

So when the media says 'the market is up' (by which they mean to say the DJIA Index number is higher; thus that equities are 'up'), the truth is they are not relatively speaking up at all but that in lesser value dollars a certain nominal 'price' was made up to give the illusion of positive direction.

Profits are in fact lower, sales are steadily falling, returns to shareholders are meager or non-existent and it is not safe to buy into equities right now.

Because everyone has this idea that investment is about trading numbers on screens and moving in and out of various positions, there isn't any real investment actually going on.

Nobody in their right mind would spend money buying shares hoping to get no returns! ...Plus a declining overall value of their capital in exchange terms.

But because in fact people are spending money via computer screens to chase numbers pretending that this is 'investing,' then the next truth to face is that volatility is bound to bring losses. Risk is always defined as volatility (reaching to 100% volatility = 100 losses). And a sudden 500 point move so-called 'upwards' in the Dow = extreme volatility which is based on no underlying production and sales facts which can support such moves.

So where do we go to from here?

Well the basic reality is that the dollar is falling.

Takes some guts to wear an
Ascot tie these days...


It is not true that the economy is good, it is not true that stocks are exhibiting growth, it is not true that companies are making profits and it is true on the contrary, that capital prices are now exclusively an expression of the coefficient of debt.

And debt today is too large of a multiple of real underlying inflows of money, and besides, that 'money' is in any case dropping in exchange value steadily.

What we are looking at is a situation in which the players are all going to self-destruct if they don't do something dramatic and do it very fast.

But they won't do anything.

You can't just 'magically' keep the dollar up like you can 'magically' enable a delusional zeitgeist when it comes to equity markets.

The fact that market leaders chose to make insane lunatic decisions to manufacture a sudden rise in equities this week means that they have created two serious channels of volatility: one being the Dow Jones Industrial Averages Index itself, and the other in the currency both ways - down because of the dollar's instant reaction to the interest rate decision, and then potential up with extreme turn-around-on-a-dime volatility if the government and/or the Fed try to do something next to prop up the falling dollar.

Drama pic of a good car.

Don't play around in highly volatile markets driven by irrational central bank and government policies; get out.

Winter is coming...

Not - 'rates are going to be higher for longer,' but winter is coming and it is going to be colder and longer and deeper than anyone knows.

The sooner you wake up to the fact that human people exist in a field - some inside very negative and even 'dead' energy fields, and some inside of alive, actually living fields of energy and pure life - the sooner you will see how to handle the problematic nature of today's mainstream social and also political, world; and be able to come up with your own personal solutions and the ways and means to achieve absolute success and meaningful material results.

This is a live version of what was basically a studio piece to begin with, and part of a studio album always intended to be just a studio album but then, there was too much of a living field going on for that to have remained stuck in such a narrowly-defined performance avenue:




  

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