So, the big problem with actually fulfilling any of these usual linear progressions of investing an amount of initial capital, is that one hundred dollars lives in your head differently from five thousand dollars.
When you have one hundred dollars at stake that is one thing, but when you are thinking about five thousand dollars or more being at stake, the amount of time it takes to replace five thousand if you lost it, is different. There is a lot of time at stake.
No burgundy, no beef burgundy.
Money is, in addition to a lot of other things, also an expression of time.
Secondly, none of us is going to rely on someone else's say-so about what the future is going to bring.
And even if you employ sophisticated systems such as the Monroe Institute's offerings, unless the results fit into some logical format consistent with our experience of materially lived reality, it is once again, psychologically difficult to accept outlier ideas.
Okay fair enough, short-selling New Zealand insurers just prior to those massive floods and storms down there is questionable as to how one could do that...
Superficially, it is plausible to say that there was the historical precedent of the muddy fields in which Napoleon foundered that followed from ionospheric lightning from erupting volcanoes far away... ...yeah yeah, okay. Maybe. lol
But why buy French cognac today?
Or high quality French wines in general?
The canals
are dry in Venice right now.
These go up anyway in the secondary markets, very commonly. And they are not all that easy to procure to begin with.
No, what I said was buy fairly inexpensive bottles. Because in all events, the market for those, as long as they were of a decent standard to begin with, was quite wide.
But how to buy into such things with surety that they will certainly ascend in prices and in value?
Right now the prices have not moved an inch.
Time is easiest to buy in a bottle.
All of these modern-era 'luxury' brands like LV and Chanel and so on are promoters of artificial scarcity. Their prices are dependent on the luxury market disposable dollar.
You want real commodities with the outlook of genuine scarcity about them.
There are a lot of psychological impediments for me anyway in this topic of investing. Loss aversion being the biggest. It would likely take a crystal ball to move me. I understand the idea you are putting forth though
ReplyDeleteCoincidentally I was served an ad on YouTube last night for a Whiskey club. I lolled
Nah don't. You can't improve a whisky in the bottle. But when we are living in a world of powerful inflationary forces, simple common widely-bought commodities of modest original value - go up in price markedly 'IF' those other additional factors take shape: hence, good quality burgundies and cognacs.Not 'top brand name' - not those things that start out at a few thousand - they have already 'priced-in' silly foolish rich-people premiums. LOL Ordinary vintage ales, ordinary VSOP cognac. There's 'time in a bottle' and when they hit decent gains, then THERE'S where you can pull profits and re-invest at much higher entry prices and not have that risk aversion feeling, because after all, at that point you are buying quality with bigger money that you never personally 'worked for.' To say nothing of what you could achieve in discounted bonds. And that day is just around the corner now.
DeleteI will take a look at what is available here. I’ve never had cognac before. It sounds like one of them old fashioned ‘that’ll put hairs on your chest’ kinda beverages :)
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