I Try To Be Positive...

A Seriously Deluded Individual

This is John Yates, the twit who ran the Metropolitan Police in London into the ditches where Rupert Murdoch crawled in search of private conversations and personal scandals in high places that he could exploit for money.

Whether these men do these things due to genuine paranoid delusional beliefs, or whether they know only too well that they are gaining financial and other benefits at every step along their paths 'up' and are simply pretty good at hiding this inner knowledge, I do not know.

But what I am certain of is that Hebb's Rule, that 'brain cells wire together when they fire together,' is a reliable guide, and that eventually, people who continuously maintain some outward claim that they know inwardly to be false, will end up (in non-technical, entirely layman's terms) schizophrenic, paranoid, and genuinely delusional. And this is especially so when such persons actually get massively rewarded along the way for carrying off the lie - or the several lies they need to maintain, in order to push their position and their way forward.

Bernie Cornfeld - not too bad

I think J. Edgar Hoover became a seriously paranoid schizophrenic towards the end. A lot of modern psychiatrist don't like the word 'schizophrenic,' choosing bi-polar or manic or depressed – but the reality is these people have a mind split into two. I think from a little distant hindsight, now, it is possible to look back, for instance, at the financier who built the Playboy Mansion – Bernie Cornfeld – and realise that he wasn't quite the bad guy he is often made out to have been. In hindsight you can see that he brought real innovations to mutual fund investing and his legacy as a business identity might have fared better if the market had have rewarded him in any way justly for what he put into the market equity system itself, and for the support for equitisations that he gave.

But see the market never does do that and this is something well worth remembering when involving yourself in the sharemarkets at all.

The fellow that eventually caused his undoing was another of these what I would call, seriously dangerous delusional personalities – Robert Vesco. Vesco was an outrageous fraudster and criminal who exploited malicious litigation and mudslinging to advantage. He was linked to the Nixon funding regime. Whatever you might think of Nixon as a President, his backing was extremely suspect and it tarnished his political legacy, and few disagree on that point.

A really good man

But there are also extraordinarily good people about the place. They appear often in the guise of fairly simple souls. A cunning ploy, I must say. Look for more from this fellow in this coming year. (Pic on right: Tom Watson, UK MP)

Taking A Big Swing

I clearly remember the Saturday afternoon I sorta lost my nerve at the races. I had five dollars – a measly five dollars (ten dollars in all) – each way on a horse at twenty-five to one. My sister, who was working on the stand with Australasia's biggest bookmaker at the time, had confirmed to me that virtually the entire Committee had bet on this horse, which had started in the morning at 100/1.

I even remember the name of the horse now so many years later: Todvega. And it was ridden by the best jockey I have ever seen, John James (J.J.) Miller.

That's J.J. Miller on the right

The horse won in what is called over here 'a Port Hedland Photo.' This means, figuratively that the horse was in a photo-finish but the camera angle was taken from six hundred miles up North in Port Hedland, and thus it appeared as if this horse's head was in front on the line – even though it might have been way behind in reality!

Actually, I was standing at the post and this type of thing was unnecessary this time; the horse won for real coming up on the inside. Funny, though, in the published photo the shadow of its head was in the wrong place! I guess the Committee were just making sure...

During the course of the running of the race, for the first time in my life ever, I was shaking. I had plenty of time in the running to ask myself 'what the hell was I shaking for?' I had plenty of money, ten dollars wasn't going to kill me if the horse lost. Hell I had thirty five thousand sitting in bets in the stockmarket and I slept pretty good. And then it struck me, the race was a proxy for the actual bets I was really making, namely those in the stockmarket. I went right out on Monday morning and sold up everything. By Thursday the World Stockmarket Crash of 1987 had fully unfolded.

Luck? Presentiment? I don't know and it doesn't matter. Many of my friends lost massively and I had everything completely intact and was essentially in a better position because of the new context.

I had no clue exactly when the market was going to crash, even though I thought it would sooner or later. I had taken steps long before and had raised almost a million in cash from external shareholders and controlled a public company ready for the situation – this was where my main capital was, not in just the thirty five thousand I personally was playing around with.

I had intended to post today about simple and quick ways to counteract stress and/or lack of energy. And I will do that presently – if anyone is even remotely interested - but this other thing instead is calling for some attention: Bernanke says there is going to be a long long phase of slow growth ahead for EVERYONE... He bases that, I assume on the utter control he has exerted on the bond market. I think he would be correct too but for one strange dissonance that I have been observing recently. There has been way strange range volatility across sectors and categories that never previously exhibited this kind of thing. Australian blue chips varied over more than twenty-five per cent during the last year. That, is an impossibility for me to believe unless there is something, in the words of the new kids in the quant cubicles, 'latent' in the story. Something in other words, hidden to us all, going on.

You can see it too in the gold price range swings of late – the amplitude has widened noticeably.

I am told this may be because of false volumes from 'order stuffing' and that eventually there will be a price breakdown and then, if there really is genuine investor buying, the price will revert to its long term up trend. No doubt at all in my mind that the HFT people are trying very hard to damage the gold price. And maybe they can do it. But it calls into question Bernanke's certainty about a long long slow recovery for EVERYONE. Because wherever there are such large and systematic range moves, there is massive profit opportunity and when there is massive profit opportunity there is strong growth for some, not weak growth.

 

It's time for your hands to shake, again, because Ben and the 'Committee Men' want to take Port Hedland photos...

 

Calvin J. Bear 

Compositional Space

I 've been having this same old discussion recently with a few people – 'does money make you happy?'

Well if you're a regular here lookin' in on this series of tiny pieces about stuff that I think about, then sooner or later you're gonna have a pretty good idea about what you're going to spend all that money you're about to make on...

Not that you don't already, of course. But there'll be more ideas, won't there; just, more.

Desirable. I like that word. No, I actually love it.

If we don't desire things – I mean really desire them – then attaining things or getting stuff we merely want or think we want adds up to very little at the end of a day.

Composition, I find, is the great secret to all fulfilling acquisitions, that is - the secret to having satisfying possessions.

Lonely alleyways at night, for example, are composed universally of only a very few basic elements: emptiness, and stillness, almost silence, a few nondescript and old things lying about, or snow or still dark pools of water, and a solitary light or a huddling small set of lights weakly fighting the night's covering grasp. Walls demarking this place from other places.

Space – empty spaces, everywhere – are spaces just waiting to be filled. We are the people of the labyrinths. We just don't realise that it takes art, skill, and training, to be able to sidestep the monsters of the dark unknown, and to make sport of our predicament. Our supposed predicament of being in this place.

Walls between Fire and Liquid

Bion Again

This is all off the top of my head so I'm not sure I'm going to be able to reference stuff that well...

Hey it took me about twenty minutes to remember the name of Wilfred Bion – one of the most original and influential thinkers of the Twentieth Century in the field of psychology. What with the election and Fox and storms and floods and global warming and the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, I stopped thinking about one of the men who began all this 'lead the minds of people to prevent war through the media...'

Bion needs little introduction to most of the people who look in on this blog. But we should remind ourselves that Bion's work was very largely conducted in absolute secrecy because he worked for the Ministry of Defence in the UK, as well as eventually, the US military. Even today, the detail that comes out of his work is, I believe, the tip of the iceberg. Well, okay, the droplets of the water from the melted iceberg that melted because of GLOBAL WARMING.

Armin van Buuren - trance dancers love him

I am grateful to JP who posted an earlier comment directing readers to a Salon article about the effects of rhythmic music. This is a Wilfred Bion idea. He conducted extensive research into the neurological effects of sound and music. A lot of the modern strands of research flow on from the research of Bion and his collaborators. Today, the most advanced researchers have moved on a long long way from the fundamental concepts about 'endorphins' and their capacity to alter sensations of pain and anxiety. 'Endorphins' covers too wide a body of chemical reactions and electro-chemical events in neurophysiology to apocalypse (yes, that's what it really means) the mechanisms of human psychological effects and affective neural pathways.

The actual way the brain functions in concert with its sensory systems, is that there is a virtual constant and continuous flood of signals going on – there are descriminating filters that pick up variance patterns and apply signification to those patterns. Sleep itself, only occurs when another system comes into play that blocks incoming and outgoing sense and nerve signals. Those signals are still going on, they just get 'whited-out' by orthogonal or 'keytonic' additional signals which have the effect of blanking out those patterns that have affective muscular reaction significance to the 'awake state' brain functions. The point really, of what I'm saying, is that there is a lot going on constantly. Nothing is actually dormant as such. And more particularly, the system of pattern recognition/signification is outlandlishly complex, I mean really. Really, it is complex.

For example, if you are familiar with the musical group 'Drum Tao' or 'Drums of Zen' (same people) then you might assume that this is certainly the type of rhythmic sound stimulation that will pump those endorphins of which the article in Salon speaks. And it might, but not because of the rhythm, but because of the pattern variances... And, researchers have found, the more subtle the variances, THE MORE SIGNIFICANCE THE BRAIN ATTRIBUTES.

Black Forest (brand name) wireless speakers

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0MRzFW7o1w

I recommend Jonas Steur Featuring Julie Thompson – 'Cold Wind' – ( the link above) for an example of extremely subtle pattern variance. And if you want to compare something similar from a classical repertoire one might suggest Vladimir Horowitz playing a Chopin Polonaise. These quick, almost imperceptibly tiny pattern variances are the kinds of things the human brain responds to most of all. Waves forms, shapes, contours, calculative multiplied notes – all these electrify the brain and underscore that 'something important' is going on to the human mind. It is an evolutionary imperative. And I would listen to what these things 'say.' By accident, or perhaps not by so much accident, music shows us the meaning to our lives.

Calvin J. Bear

The Day Of The Burgundy Wine-Coloured Spy

French wine, lingerie, red velvet curtains.

This is the iconographic image of elegant sex that we are used to in the modern West.

Sex is, afterall – well at least it is for the elite in that game - highly formalized and stylized.

I know this because I learned it from a man I interviewed once who was a key part of Helmut Newton's original Sydney (Australia)-based commercial photographic studio. This gentleman – the one I interviewed - spoke of Herr Doktor Markus Wolf long before too many of the even well-read public had ever heard of his name. Of course, I would hazard not many recall now what that particular fellow was all about...

Actual Russian Intelligence Officer - Anna Chapman

I should say too, though, that whilst I am relaxed in saying that the person that I knew, and that I am speaking about here, did indeed also show me all the great secrets of a good Martini - I am slightly troubled by the fact that later on in his life, I suspected him of either having become, or at least having become very deeply implicated with, a serial killer...

Marinus (Martin) - for that was his name - was also a friend of the actor Lee Marvin and they would spend many summers stalking Black Marlin, I believe it was, from memory. The both of them were surprisingly fit, or let's say physically strong, to be more accurate, and good with long-bladed, serrated-back Marlin knifes,

In one particular discussion about things of the world, Martin pointed out to me that a hundred years ago, the finest restaurants served their clientelle a la francaise and not, as we are used to now, a la carte or a la russe (as it is more correctly termed).

Slava Zaitsev fashion - no ushanka today

'A la russe' means in the Russian style, and that means bringing dishes out in a sequential manner. Which is a bit like serial monogamy, you could say...

Laying out a large table with more or less all the dishes already there to be served from, to the diners – this is a la francaise. Such a thing is all very formal, with liveried attendants standing behind the guests like soldiers until a toast is made and only then are people seated and things go on from there. It's meant to inspire awe in onlookers...

Martin told me eventually when I asked him directly about the killings, that it couldn't have been him 'because he loved women too much...' A very poor excuse, I thought.

But, I say! This man was urbane – the most urbane I have ever encountered. Almost theatrical, but not overpoweringly so, so as you would count it against him; he was, I must say, tres subtle.

So... French wine, lingerie, red velvet curtains.

But I also think you can present Russian vodka, Soviet era emblems, and ushankas, and caviar, as iconographic of a certain kind of decadence and thus of course also of sex. At the moment I'm not so much concerned about the social or historic derivation of these symbols as anything remotely to do with sex, more the current nuances they conjure up.

Burgundy wine coloured velvet, really...

You see I want you all to imagine the launch of some luxury prestige or hot sports car, with a closed invitation guest list. You know what these things are like don't you? They are held in rather large rooms, though usually not big halls as such. There is one wall removed and a modest enough stage behind a large floor-to-ceiling dark red velvet drape. And music plays and champagne is served. And right when the music reaches a certain crescendo, the curtains are pulled back to reveal – the great vision. And everyone applauds. And drinks more wine.

What lies behind the closed curtains? Soviet submarines and ICBM's, Bugattis and Jaguars. And so on. Catherine the Great turns into Mother Russia. Crotchless knickers from Napoleon's Josephine...? I don't know. But what's the great American sex icon deriving from power at the apex? If it's Marilyn Monroe and JFK then it's certainly out of very recent history, comparatively speaking.

The curtains pulled open are like a framed window onto something out there. Sometimes we might be too close to the glass and fog it up with our breath so that we are unable to see clearly past our noses.

See the fact is, without the power factor or the sense of it, no one pulls out their chequebooks.

Anna Chapman again

(P.S. Do we still use chequebooks?)

Get That Edge

One day, when I was twenty-seven, I looked at the bank statement of the private company I owned outright, saw the figure of two million dollars positive balance there, and began to be more careful about the physical risks I was taking – I began to slow down from my usual speed (was never that fast to begin with!) when I was driving, and I stopped thinking about all those extreme sports things like sky-diving and solo glider flying and deep sea diving and so on. That is I stopped entertaining any serious inclination to participate in those kinds of pursuits.

I suppose part of the story was that I was headed into the public listed companies arena and I guess I valued my own being around to complete any saga there that I had decided to commence.

Up until then I was always very athletic, well-coordinated, quite competitive, and liked taking educated risks that seemed like decent challenges to a lot of other people.

Zivko Edge Aerobatic Plane

Theoretically, as my own bank account grew, I could have indulged in a lot of things that had been too expensive previously. My sister flew, I kind of dabbled without putting enough time into getting licensed – but the intent and the interest to pursue such idiotic things like aerobatic flying was definitely there. As time passed I forgot all about this kind of stuff.

My nephew on the other hand, is undertaking most of the things I pulled myself back from in my late twenties. We both go to a few Red Bull air races every year and he has flown with aerobatic pilots as a passenger in two-seaters.

Funny thing is now, I yet might make calculated decisions to get back into certain 'out there' activities. The older I get, and the more I have seen what a waste good intentions are on most of society, and how little appreciated they are (not that I particularly have done anything much in the order of the completely altruistic myself), and certainly how very little use indeed someone with a brain like mine, is to the majority of people – the more I find that it feels possible for me to take huge risks with personal safety. When I say 'huge risks' though, I mean apparent huge risks, because I still believe calculation and judgement and correct assessments are totally paramount.

Professional risk-taking was what I embarked upon early on because I had great doubts and suspicion about what was being cast by society at large as authoritative – either of knowledge, morality, even of science. I had formed the view that I could and should back my own judgement. By about the Nineteen Eighties it was starting to be apparent to me that the world had moved away from broader social reasoning and had become completely drawn to material self-interest as the driving logic for anything that people undertook. I had this view though, that people were not generally that very good at attaining their selfish ends, frankly... There is this hard-nosed 'realism' that has become the sentiment of the modern world, but it is based around a self-important and exaggerated view of capabilities and intellect and talent.

Okay, I DID have an amazing early education and it simply is a fact that for a short while the then young David and Hillary Rothschild stayed in my family's home while my father supervised their University Matriculations.

I don't think I was being necessarily presumptuous or conceited in forming the views that I had about credentialism and trends in science and economics and politics – frankly I was too young and too borderline autistic to be anything other than just plain pragmatic.

However I wish I was as smart still, as I was back then when I could make those calculating and cynical decisions. Because in the back of my mind is another, and newer, suspicion, that society is ripe for something – I know not what...

Anyhow, last Sunday I had an amazing red wine with some older family and their friends: Chateau Tanunda Barossa Shiraz. I think this has been the very very best red I have had in about ten years. It is, in my estimation, at least as good as a thousand dollar bottle of Penfolds Grange.

There are still many amazing things in life in spite of the uselessness of much of what has come to be the establishment and the authoritative platforms for money, science, entertainment and law.

The beauty of the internet is not that it has opened up all of these great things to everyone. But that it has closed them all off and made them intensely private and only privately accessible to the sensible. Most people just don't have the patience to be sensible any more. It takes patience to make a great wine, breed a great horse, cook a great piece of beef.

Old money... is patient, but without losing any of its edge and sensibility and taste for the good things. People who lose their comprehension of what actually is good, waste money on the inferior.

Deep, Dark, Progressional

Do you want a thrill?

The thrill of the most advanced things - you will be
flying in one of these one day soon.

Would you like to experience something that is utterly mindblowing – yet still fits inside that box 'we intelligent people' confine ourselves into these days, namely, the 'scientific.' And of course, not illegal...

Firstly, though, allow me to just say that all of this is actually incredibly old. There was, as far as I know, a long time ago in Greece, a temple at place called Epidaurus, in which there was a thing called an Enkoimeteria (you know, like cafeteria, only enkoimeteria; a place of mystical sleep). And during your mystical sleep there, induced by the musical enchantment of priests and priestesses, the god Apollo himself would advise you of how to cure your ailments.

Now moving on forward to today, the leading edge of the neuroscientific world is adding some scientific authority to what the avant garde digital electronic musicians call 'auditory driving.'

There is a lot of scientific data available about the mechanisms of neural signalling – an area I personally find very interesting - and the system structures and pathways that are now accepted to be, much more so than previously supposed, genetically pre-determined in modern human brains. Arthur C. Clarke wrote a book called The Overlords, in which an alien species comes here to try to understand why humans spent so much time playing around with meaningless patterns and structures of audial information. Eventually, in the book, the aliens congratulated a composer on his outstanding work and then departed, none the wiser and still failing to understand what was going on, because they had 'no music within themselves.'

Music is like any other endeavour of Mankind; it becomes more and more streamlined as we progress as a species. The apprehension of advanced music, is not as clearly obvious as say the immediate visual significance of innovative and advanced material physical design – and that is because it occurs and unfolds over time, rather than can be quickly 'seen' as a complete body, as one image, as it were.

Alucidnation - Bruce Bickerton

Oliver Sacks, in a recent edition of the Oxford Journal (Vol. 129, Issue 10, Pp. 2528-2532) quotes Schopenhauer as saying that “music was an embodiment of pure 'will.'” Sacks, still a bit behind the bleeding edge, casually and weakly opines that the question in his own (Sacks') mind is still unresolved as to whether or not Schopenhauer is correct. And yet goes on to intimate that music is pre-installed into the design structures of the human neurophysiology and even the muscle-body.

And now, here is my pronouncement on all this: music is the very essence of language of advanced Man. When you want to look for evidence of intelligent communications from the outer Cosmos, or from ancient aliens, or 'gods,' or from seemingly mythical entities and intelligences, in fact there are a never-ending amount of clues and 'artefacts' in the world of music. We don't rapidly pick these up because they demand a greater scrutiny than what is expected by the Fox Television Era mindset. In fact I don't even admit there is such a real thing as a 'soundbite;' a soundbite is not even a large enough data set to represent the equivalent of an alphabet letter in a bowl of alphabet soup!

No, if you actually want to comprehend an intelligent argument, you are required to possess a certain amount of inherent music within. Science can now – and has – stuck a PET scan onto the activity of the brain, and knows without any contradiction, that neurons light up in constellations of sophisticated connections, when the firing rates of synapses reach the harmonic threshold requirements that define our perceptions and apprehension of what we call 'music.'

The word 'trance' is an Old French word itself taken from the Latin 'transire' which implies a 'petrified condition from fear of evil' when someone transitions or passes or crosses over the River Styx.

Coincidentally, the outstanding modern trance music composer BT, has the root word in his own birth name – Brian Transeau.

DJ Anna Kiss

But in fact modern trance music is highly mathematical, rather than simply haphazard or merely coincidental... It is characterized by a tempo of between 110 and 150 beats per minutes, and has a number of other highly consistently, structurally constrained, elements.

Some of the best exponents of this type of music are quite old men, on the whole - and some women too - and a lot of them are classically trained pianists. Craig Armstrong is not a young man. Brian Bickerton is a ginger-haired mature English gentleman at home with British Soccer, and fish and chips, and beer. But what they are doing in engineering the music they make, is inducing brain activity that is in no way dissimilar to what you will experience even from the most sophisticated or highest-level and highest lifestyle hedonic stimulation. Try it: I assume you all can get YouTube – have a look at Alucidnation 'Deep Rez,' or 'The Infinite Variety.' Just try it.

Sables and Psychopaths

What's Real, What's Not Real.

I guess I'm responding here to something posted onto another website by another person. The website is the 'other' Wall Street Bear Discussion Board.

The post was a link to a YouTube clip by a legit shrink on what a psychopath is.

I headed off then next to another nearby clip about narcissism. And here I am now, finding myself more or less setting out to defend why I blog or post anywhere at all – because both of the YouTube clips were a bit tendentious really, provoking you to think 'hey! Is that me they are talking about?!' I mean do I blog because I am self-absorbed? And isn't it true that like all entrepreneurs I might also be a touch manipulative and have little empathy?

Well – no! I was trained in the subcontracting world of old-school manufacturing/technological Singapore, where either you killed off your subcontractor eventually through restriction and oversight and control – or they sure as hell would kill you off with continual demands and problems!!

As for blogging, I'm sure I do it because of frustration over the usual media commentaries and the pseudo-professionals everywhere capturing the agenda with stuff that is just plain dumb, ignorant, or old hat and dead boring!

...So anyway, I'm watching these YouTube videos and I get this same old feeling that so much of everything everywhere these days is like bad high school teachers preaching fairly tame and popularly established 'knowledge' to minds that cannot possibly be expected to be older than about fourteen to twenty-two at most. So who all decided that the audience of the entire world was made up of people lacking any worldly experience and that had never read a decent text book the whole of their lives?

Not a real spy

Okay maybe I too will turn into a 'self-justifying know-it-all,' (the criticism of Singapore dictator Lee Kwan Yew made by one of his ex-colleagues). I love to get something in about Kwan Yew. He's on his deathbed, you know.

But all the same why are governments for example, so late onto the scene of the crime, as it were. I notice this week the Australian High Court put a stop to the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation's idiotic 'adverse report' findings on a few Tamil refugees. This, probably ten whole years after I had written to a few of my own ex-colleagues in government asking them to think very hard about taking the word of a certain Rohan Gunaratne, a self-appointed 'expert on terrorism' from Singapore's Nanyang Polytechnic. And not to mention my extremely long held conversation with a handful of others in responsible positions here in Australia about the virtually certain residence of Osama bin Laden (or the specific important person going by that name on the 'urgent' desks of the Security Services of many countries...) in Pakistan.

Australia's intelligence and policing services are made up of people of integrity but they are not immune from this global wind of overhyping the simply banal, and creating 'complexity' where there isn't any - the result of which is a massive going round in expensive circles when common sense would have reached a correct solution right at the outset. Things which could deserve some priority though are turfed out because they are 'too hot to handle,' and the toothless dramas get dressed up facilely as issues that must be addressed with taxpayer money.

Not a real historical Russian restaurant

I have given up, really. I'd rather spend my time looking at the pre-Nineties Hollywood eye-candy versions of spy stories, for example, and the present-era oligarchic fake culture and historicity in Moscow. I don't read the news anymore. I read the Elite Life magazine in Russian, where the editors have not become jaded yet. I have an ambition to go visit the Pushkin Cafe in Moscow – which is basically a whimsical and entirely fake 'old Russia' building and interior... And I also remain an entrepreneur. Because I basically couldn't care less about... Oh dear. That YouTube video was right then. Anyway I have entirely given up on the modern West just at the moment. I might be saved though, by that private video promotion that Johnnie Walker circulates among embassy staff around the entire globe that hasn't made it into the public sphere yet. Is that perfectly legal for security staff and embassy people to get private marketing privileges that the rest of us don't? I don't know. Though probably not. But as I say – who cares!

Vasta Carthaginiensibus

Fabius Maximus was the Roman General, Consul, Leader, and Statesman, who ended his speeches in the Senate with the phrase 'Vasta Carthaginiensibus.' Carthage must be destroyed.

History records Quintus Fabius Maximus as having been known as 'Cunctator' – 'The Delayer.'

I think he might just as easily have been known as the dripping tap. He was not politically well-supported until he was eventually proven correct in his outlook and his words which had all along been just like a dripping tap, drip drip dripping into the ears and minds of everyone, were accepted and his ideas adopted by the public in ancient Rome.

Fabius Maximus

Fabius Maximus delayed engaging Hannibal as he crossed the Alps.

The greatest problem of the Western world today is not Hannibal (nor is it the Rise of Islam, fundamentalist or otherwise), but the failure of anyone to come up with any kind of policy that can engender economic growth.

Yet, we have had short term growth from time to time in the form of real estate bubbles, and also stock market valuations bubbles before that, and now we have an enormous issuance of money via the US Federal Reserve Bank, which is a kind of a prices-and-values deflating currency bubble that keeps interest rates seemingly, down.

Economic growth can only occur in a way that doesn't terminate in calamity, when tax receipts are matching the government's own demand to spend debt. Real estate is not a good way to engage the taxing power of government because real estate turns over insufficiently quickly to create enough taxing opportunities. At the same time, commercial banks appear to only know how to lend to real estate collateral and they of course are legally permitted to create credit and thereby money, inside a ratio related to the Federal Reserve's total currency issuance. This lawful creation of money falls inside the Money Multiplier principle and is quite a legitimate thing. But, it ceases to be functional or legitimate when the creation of credit by commercial banks ONLY happens through real estate. And, in these circumstances the banks can appear to have a lot of moral credibility because they can establish quite healthy reserves and thereby claim to be acting 'responsibly.'

In other words there is a clear dichotomy between the political needs of elected governments of all persuasions (and therefore the economic requirements of society at large), and the commercially easy road for commercial banks.

THE SOLUTION

The solution is to force the lending by 'the banking sector' to business activities of every description BUT real estate – retailing, manufacturing, technology, food, and many other things – in short all sorts of things where the velocity of credit and money circulation in the domestic economic is high on an annual basis. The tax receipts will naturally increase, and the make up of banking reserves will vastly have changed from the highly-skewed illiquid and non-circulating thing that it has up till now been because of the real estate bias.

Ben Bernanke's insistence on significantly increasing the currency issuance is to do with his attempts to hide the unusually large EXCESS RESERVES of a handful of commercial banks as a ratio of the entire money supply – and this is because there is a systematic looting of the system by banks acting like a cartel to channel their credits through the low tax arena of long term real estate, and structure of pushing off bad debts into brand names designed to fail and to fall, and a strong ideological bent by those banks to deny the rest of the market credit because this is where both the tax risk is and the business risk is too.

Nevertheless, the public and the government have to pull the current thicket of commercial and investment banks in. And one way to do with this is to issue new banking sector licences to structures that will lend to higher circulation velocity business activities. The borrower need not advance any form of real estate security at all, but, they must accept a higher eventual tax rate. It need only be a slightly higher one.

And I think the fact is my concept is not only the only one that will work but the one that is inevitable at some point in the future.

Of course, it may well be quite some time into the future because no one expects the present cadre of special interests to easily depart from the centre of attention that they so passionately appear to be in love with possessing, nor give up their privileged access to fiat unbacked printed money-out-of-thin-air-at-no-cost-to-them, nor their stranglehold on the types of politicians put up for the big elections and the agenda of what is discussed on Fox News and how it is discussed.

Simply put though, the current debate about 'impossibly large national debt' and 'taxing the 1 per cent' and the 'dependent 47 %' is all complete and utter rubbish.

These things are spouted by accountants who are the equivalent of static image photographers taking snapshots of bits of a Mercedes engine on a garage floor and everyone standing around and nodding sagaciously as if it mattered that the pictures are beautiful or the car parts oily. What is needed are engineers and mechanics, not photographers taking pictures of static images. Economics is a thing in complex motion. And accountants and commercial banks biased to real estate lending have gotten away with a claim to importance that is not only overstated but politically and socially dangerous and dysfunctional. Real estate itself, has somehow manage to get away with another false and ludicrous claim about its being 'capital.' It is certainly not, a 'financial asset' for one thing – which is defined as any asset that is guaranteed to be able to be turned into cash within one standard accounting period of one year, and neither is it 'financial capital' which is defined as any asset that is guaranteed to be able to be sold by no later than ten years. Sometimes, and using various sophistications, it is true that some real estate can be sold within ten years, and some can be monetised inside one year – but there are no general guarantees about it and frankly, real estate is only weakly a type of economic 'capital' at all.

Like the case of Quintus Fabius Maximus, eventually, what I have just said will also be widely accepted as irresistably correct.

Return Of The Mack

My mother was on the stage. A lot of years ago of course. So many years ago only people in the theatre would have much of an idea what it was back then to be a contracted J. C. Williamson's artist.

Mark Morrison

Me, I can't dance and I can't sing. And I can't teach school either (my father was a teacher for more than forty years). Okay the truth is I saw what they both did and I figured, 'oh this isn't for me at all.' Way too much hard work. And of course the worst thing was my uncles who were seriously wealthy – one having been a director of Shell Far East. Result: money = good; altruism = silly. That's how little kids think. I still think 'doing good' is largely a thankless occupation. Hey look, at the time I knew my uncles, Shell was already far past just doing something beneficial for industry, middle class lifestyles and the developed and developing world – at the executives' level it was about playboy Malaysian tunkus, Chinese mistresses, British tailors, Aston Martins and Rileys and gullwing Mercedes sportscars, private luncheons and late late dinners with shiploads of alcohol, and the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund. At least it was from what I could see from hip-height (possibly the place to be to see all the action).

I suppose my only handicap in life is that I have always been fairly athletic with rather low body-fat and that means I can't do much of the alcohol thing. And thus, many people have been pretty suspicious of me. If you want to succeed in business the straightforward way, try not to encourage people being suspicious of you, I would say.

Actually in this post I was intending to focus on the stage and theatre and performance in general actually, rather than on the rich men's club stuff.

At the same time though, success in any business venture is quite similar to running a successful theatre production. And sometimes, though quite rarely, I observe in popular entertainment the fingerprints of the olden days' professional theatrical producer. I have to tell you, no one in modern politics has this quality at all. In all of the drive to mass-produce talent and garner the broadest popular appeal by standing on as few toes as possible, you end up with utter inanity.

Good theatrical producers know that every superstar talent is ideosyncratic – that's what human beings are at the top level. Individuals, different, unusual, personalities, characters... ...and difficult. Some are not difficult. But a lot are.

I was doing the hotdogs at the school sausage sizzle this week during their interschool sports carnival, when a tune came on the speaker system and one of the mothers stuck her iPhone up in the air with the Shazam App on: in fact she didn't catch the song in time and on this occasion the App didn't get the name of the pop track.

Well I happen to know the tune and it was Mark Morrison's Return Of The Mack, something from the Nineties. Mark Morrison is talent. Rare. Ideosyncratic. Not sure if he's difficult or not. Delta Goodrem – who is also talent – was up the road at a shopping centre during the same week and one of the dad's on the barbecue had a pic of her on his clone Samsung. He's a security guard. Delta Goodrem has a reputation as down-to-earth and a real nice person. All the moms and dads at the school thing said she was a 'diva' but totally without all the diva arrogance and difficult attitude. Lucky agent and producer. It's rare.

You want to see talent get onto YouTube and watch Howlin' Wolf do 'Smokestack Lightning,' or Mark Morrison do 'Return Of The Mack' or Delta Goodrem sing her latest song 'Dancing With A Broken Heart.' Goodrem's song is not raw like the work of the other two but her talent gets the thing across. And for me, I can see the handiwork of a real olden days' producer all over her video clip.

Makes much of the modern world just plain stupid. I've always felt artists, especially musicians, can pick up the trend of the near-term future extremely accurately. ...The world is not going in the direction the dumb politicians and their bureaucrat viziers might like to think that it is. In fact I tell you what; you want to make money and be at the front of the curve start thinking much much more creatively and inventively than conservative politics – which is basically the mindset of both sides.

And buckle-up. There's a ride ahead. Don't worry about money. There'll be plenty. Stop worrying about money; it isn't the problem. The problem is doubt about the avant garde. Don't doubt it though – no successful person ever did. And the public, knows talent. Just watch them stick the Shazam App up in the air to chase it. Talent... is sexy.

Financial Genius

The whole point of artistic or musical genius is that it delivers the 'artistic massage' first, and only subsequently some thinking people then tend to realise there was a serious intellectual message too.

Orgastic Love = Hand on Ass, maybe not arm in arm...

Is there such a profile available when it comes to financial genius...? What would be the equivalent? A mathematical massage? An intellectual massage? A money massage? At least it is clear what the message is – we tell you a story and then justify taking the value of your work, wealth, and efforts and handing it to someone who won't sit down and have a cup of tea with you. The vision of Stanley Fisher and Ben Bernanke walking virtually arm-in-arm at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, tells it like it is. There are hundreds of miles between me and you – and them and a bunch of armed guards.

Taking money from the citizen and from the taxpayer and continually giving it to a few privileged banks certainly creates an ethical questionmark over the purpose of a central bank like the US Federal Reserve. But of course that is unlikely to ever be addressed honestly and directly by Bernanke.

Crucially for professional private investors, assessment of economic risk nowadays falls to the question of who is 'protected' and who is not, rather than who is acting sensibly and who is acting dangerously... Can the banks and the government act sensibly at all or over the longer run? Well, let's just see for how long they can; if they are doing it even now.

The great philosopher and public intellectual Paul Ritter

Although not commonly talked about, there is such a thing as a radical pathology psychologist – or sometimes, 'radical social pathology psychologist.' You won't see much talk about such people in the ordinary media; for they are a thoroughly discredited lot you see. For instance, there is my late friend the extraordinary Paul Ritter – the architect and polymath/polyhistor who laid one of the original foundation stones at the World Trade Center. He personally knew the very thoroughly discredited psychologist and medical doctor Wilhelm Reich – who was one of those Austrian School Psychologists who more or less started all this nonsense about the establishment deliberately misleading and suppressing the masses through a steady diet of fear and crisis. Reich's main problem, it seemed to me at least, appeared to stem from the fact that he had the temerity to suggest the establishment's core dissembling nature resulted fundamentally from a sexual issue they all had! And that, as they say, was the quick end to him.

But I think that the establishment has miscalculated – or maybe even failed to calculate at all - that the internet and all it represents, is the very devil's breath itself to the common herd, because it liberates the Id of the private individual and the collective Id of his community, from the constraints and controls and social rules imposed from his political and government masters from on high. I cannot think of a single greater real test that has ever happened in history of whether Reich's style of psychoanalysis and his ideas are functionally sound or merely crackpot thoughts. Dare I say this: Reich is extremely clear about what he thinks will happen, but you will have to read his books carefully to discover what these predictions are...

And yes yes, of course I am being subserversive.

Dancing With A Broken Heart

WARNING - YOU DON'T HAVE TO AGREE WITH THIS ONE!!

Today I was confronted with a frightening fact: Anders Behring Breivik is possibly more diligently well-read than me.

I mean I am a great reader who travels far beyond the typical academic or commercial booklist review-of-books. I used to work near enough to the seriously commercial book-publishing industry to know how to find out who really sells the most books – in other words, what books real readers like as opposed to those books that the marketing department arranges the sales of!

Of course by now I'd actually forgotten that when I was an undergraduate at the University of Western Australia I once tackled a certain Prof. Maund with the complaint that the librarian was being suspiciously deceptive regarding the works of Wilhelm Reich which were supposed to be on the shelves – but which weren't. Only many many years later did I discover that a certain City Councillor – one Paul Ritter (the architect and town planner who had laid the foundation stones of the original World Trade Center) – continually 'removed' (as in purloined...) all said copies any and every time the University replaced them on the shelves by buying new copies, until eventually, they stopped buying them.

Kate Bush - wrote Reich-inspired songs

A further fact was that all of this was because of some dispute or other between Ritter and the University itself – and partly also consisting of an attempt by Ritter to get some free press about his socio-psychology ideas that were being decried by the Heritage (buildings) Council based at the University.

The fact that I was the only person who ever did actually really notice the continual disappearances of these books I guess means that popularity is not necessarily a guarantee of quality, or, that quality is a fluid idea when it comes to the written word expressing the ideas of intellectuals and that not everyone agrees on what intellectualism is.

In the past I have tried to read broadly...

But Breivik not only appears to have read broadly, but to have comprehended the significance of some of the intellectuals he has read. The conclusions he reaches are not ones that I can necessarily agree with him about – but the danger of those intellectuals is if anything, testified to by what Breivik did.

People who read along the same lines as Breivik are likely to be 1. very few in number and 2. rather intelligent to say the least.

Is James Holmes one of these? And does he also have a Manifesto out there somewhere, but one that is being presented in disguise and not presently being attributed to him? I believe there is almost a 100% chance that this is the case. I don't think either Breivik or Holmes are lunatics at all. That is, they are only lunatic if you consider Stalin to have been a lunatic, if you see what I mean. They will achieve a certain amount of their ends through the kind of determination that is, I suppose, a little crazy!

Let me show you an example of the power of people like Reich... Reich, I believe, was not the man people have assumed him to be. He has always been thought of as being both brilliant, and likely also suffering a mental disorder towards the end of his life. And that is the fatal mistake about him. Wilhelm Reich was so brilliant that he realised that to actually have the impact he desired, on the type of society and the type of person in society that he wanted to affect, he would eventually as a form of therapy have to play a lethal and probably self-fatal joke on the pathological and neurotic society in which he was living both during the era of Nazi Germany, and post that in the USA. His basic premise throughout his latter written works was that scientists had to be allowed to pursue completely erroneous paths and be permitted and indulged in pursuing virtually obvious complete failure – in order to challenge the psychological straitjacket of a political society that was severely neurotic, traumatised, and disturbed from centuries of violence that we were mistaken in assuming we had coped with without impediment to the sanity of the very system itself. He thought that by deliberately going down obviously erroneous pathways seeking discovery, we might find solutions where by going down the straitjacketed ones by this time in the pathology of society, we most certainly wouldn't at all and only prolong and promulgate ever more neurotic pathology.

I'm pretty sure he personally regarded what he was saying extremely seriously in the same way any doctor would in treating an epidemic. The other side of that coin is mass murder... Of course.

I recommend that you listen to and watch the video by Kate Bush which employs Reichian psychology – song titled 'Running Up That Hill.'

And then I recommend the extremely recent/current hit by the Australian singer Delta Goodrem – 'Dancing With A Broken Heart,' which is essentially the same idea but revisited in the modern musical idiom. Artists often know before others, what is going on. Well, maybe reflect deep feelings within parts of the society before the whole becomes fully conscious of them. Let us not forget, musicians like Wagner were always associated with the rise of Nazi Germany. We are at a distance now from Wagner -, but too close to Bush and Goodrem (pic on the right there) and the trance beat generation to realise the signs.

Calvin J. Bear

Eating In Russian Kitchens

“The Secrets of Russian Cuisine.”

This is a more elegant phrase employed by Western publishers to render a rather genteel english translation of the title of a book by East German Spymaster Markus Wolf, which was really called “Secrets of the Russian Kitchen.”

The subtle, nuanced difference, is that of the difference between a culinary art, and the results or consequences that require to be hidden, concerning what scullery maids get up to with the lord of the manor.

Personally, I'd love to categorically delineate who I think are 'the good guys' and who 'the bad.' Unfortunately of course, it is impossible to shake off those romantic myths and legends from the mindsets of the ordinary folk. I speak of myths and tales by which those who steer the course of State - exploit and manipulate the masses. The James Bond myth. The noble english lord myth. The honest policeman myth... The licence granted by the State...

A Great Russian Design

But look here, when you understand that the upper echelons of recent United Kingdom political leadership consists of mostly sunset industry moghuls – to put it at its very kindest – then you may begin to see that a huge tobacco company, for instance, is staring down the barrel of a total laying waste to the lifestyle that its bosses a long time ago became accustomed to... And that, it's entirely possible that those bosses in their social 'kitchen cabinetting' with political and even government, administrative, senior executives, asked for some leeway or relief from the rules and from the law, in order to protect their revenue and their lifestyle. And far be it from me to suggest that they might have been able to unduly influence the answers given, and/or the future policy of government!

However I have no such illusions about Russian realpolitik or at least, realforeignpolitik.

I am quite certain that Marcus Wolf had long established a system and a regime of generating, educating, or cultivating deep cover operatives who were aimed very specifically, at the very highest echelons of establishment power all around the world.

In my personal view, this establishment, asked for and got, during the Thatcher era, not a 'licence to kill,' but a 'licence to thieve...' And I further think that this misbehaviour has extended into the present climate of fear of terrorism in all its reputed forms – from home-grown nutjob to full-blown external sovereign insertions – in order to exploit this justification regarding 'saving us all from terrorists,' as the moral behind why some big players and their guided missile men, are allowed to defraud, forge, hack into, and steal from, whoever they designate as an 'open season target.'

But, as they say in the sporting world in which I sometimes dwell: "don't forget while you're thinking that you are invincible, that the other team is also going to turn up on the day and play too."

One of the very largest top echelon companies in England is Hanson PLC – a first class asset stripper that would make Mitt Romney blush. Baron Hanson partnered with a certain Lord White of Hull to form Hanson Trust originally. But – neither Hanson nor White are what I would call genuine aristocrats. There was a something-or-other of Hull, but that was long ago, before the Constable of London, Oliver Cromwell, did away with his opponents in the real aristocracy. And so all these modern this, that, and the other of so-an-so a place in England somewhere (and sometimes not even!) are all manufactured 'life peerages' handed out during Thatcher and afterward too, generally on account of massive successes in asset stripping, vast redundancies, abandonment of research and development, and grabbing their hands onto a lot of immediate CASH.

But the game of chess is slow and terribly fair.

Listen to me – I don't need anything Julian Assange has in order to kick the establishment in the balls.

Here is a picture of the young inheritor of the Hanson Empire – Robert Hanson – a wonderful fellow, highly-educated at the very best of toffy schools, wealthy beyond your, yay even YOUR dreams, and his wife the onetime Russian model Masha Markova.

Now when I say that certain people have been doing some bad stuff that involves gross illegality, I literally do mean exactly that. And sad to say, the police and the courts and government agencies and bureaucracies have protected them. Just as in the days of old Cromwell – who also, was saving the honest citizenry from the terrible misdeeds of tyrants and the unfaithful. Young Hanson is not guilty of anything that I am aware of, but I do rather think that he is now a leaky sieve, as it were, in a Russian kitchen, so to speak. Or, if not, very like unto those situations of a similar kind then that strangely enough involve some bright young thing, of very very well-trained origin. If you know what I mean.

Well, I think 'watch this space' is inadequate; I confidently predict for you, the utter demise of many once-were establishment lords and kings. And dare I say, I notice a few luxury product websites prognosticating that SINGAPORE, of all places, 'may by 2050 be the wealthiest nation on earth.' Oh, okay then. However, I always like to underscore the strong connection between London City and Singapore's oligarchic 'elite.' One falls from this sort of tree they all will fall. And that will be the end of that! The cause of my animus? Oh dear. Just stop listening to the myth-making! There is no James Bond. There has never ever been a James Bond. There is a BP, a British American Tobacco, and a Philip Morris, a Hanson Trust, and so on, though. And none of them are working for the taxpayer or the citizen. And no politician who goes along for their ride is looking after your interests. And the reason there is a banking problem today, is precisely because in stealing from everyone, the 'elite' has lost all capacity to use its brains. If Marcus Wolf were alive today, I'd be eating in his kitchen everyday. HE was the suave and cultured superspy. And HE has descendents even now.

I'm just an observer though, who once had uncles in the oil business, who left me with the luxury of being able to know a few handy names, and sit around a lot and 'read the play.'

The Silence That Falls...

Friday I have a good muslim friend of mine turn up and we have coffees, teas, even cigars maybe, and talk about good wine and blonde women, generally.
It is just past the middle of Ramadan at the moment and ye Muslime Friend - let's call him Hakim Philby - should be at the mosque. He is, however, over here.
He doesn't feel that welcome at any of the local mosques, because, unfortunately, not only is he regarded as 'Westernized' but probably corrupted by his expensive Western schooling as well. And that is not to say he is altogether understood and accepted either, by those current crops of privileged kids of African dictators and 'democratic leaders' who also went to places like Eton and Oxford and so on.

Turk's hats... in the cold snow

My friend is from a past generation.
This was the Golden Generation where money didn't mean a thing compared to principles, be they religious, moral, political or merely civic ones.
(I'm not completely sure such a generation ever really existed of course but I seem to recall that it may have...)
So... He should be fasting during the day.
Anyway, he brought over some chicken and a few odds and ends of ingredients and I went to work in my kitchen observing that both he and my wife and the next door neighbour were acting a bit like schooling sharks.
The whole mob of them were as noisy as all hell. There was a copy on the dining table of the very latest Marie Claire magazine filled to the brim with risque tales and over-skinny models and sex advice.
Nobody at my place lets me make Beef Burgundy or any of the Russian or Hungarian things that I personally like to make and eat. So I'm stuck with a sort of Tamil chicken curry and white rice with a touch of sesame oil in it. Not every Friday but well, fairly often.
I bring these two great tureens out and then all of a sudden there's this dead quiet and nobody says a word and the intensity and seriousness with which people serve themselves and get down to work eating is fascinating.

The silence - that kind of silence - is gratifying for any cook.
I'm not sure I will over a short term be able to introduce things like pickled cucumber and vodka or caviar or borscht because these things are a world apart from food you eat IN TOTAL SILENCE.
However it's very cold in places like Kiev or even Red Square often and you don't want to talk in those sorts of places unless someone absolutely insists that you do.
There is a certain pure functionality about some Russian cultural motifs, although there can be some ornateness present too.
You can see I'm doing a Russian theme at the moment. There may be a reason. In fact I'll tell you what the reason is - take the two cultures, American, and Russian, and take from out of them the best that you can find in both... ...and let's just dump all the Karl Rove, Ben Bernanke rubbish and propaganda. I'll bet there are some REAL problem areas in the Russian culture too that people there very familiar with it would also love to dispose of permanently. I'll ask my spy friend - not the Muslim guy, a different friend altogether - and let you know in another post what lunatic nonsense self-important but scene-grabbing people and ideas Russians themselves would like to do away with.
Oh yes, and there IS something going on at the Kremlin right now. You can be very sure of that. Whose side must I be on? Actually I will still be here each Friday; Mohammed and Marx can come visit anytime if they like. Well okay, maybe Tamerlane and Kruschev! I don't want to be bored!

Russian Firebird

Any time you encounter a folk tale or fairy story or fantastic myth involving 'a garden,' you are dealing with the classical 'Garden of the Hesperides' story. This is an unusual story because it is never very prominently rendered by the Greeks themselves, who have a few writers and philosophers who endeavoured to explain it. As is quite typical of them, though, they actually try to place the garden in a real place somewhere in the world, usually suggested to be 'somewhere in or near' modern day Spain.

Ksenia O.

If you ever get the chance to go and see the great ballet 'The Firebird,' you will observe that it is just when the day begins at last to turn towards the night, when all the critical action happens, and when the Firebird herself, fatefully takes the stage. ...Glowing like red-orange embers, strange dark and upward slanted eyes, and supernatural and with divine powers.

Fatefully... takes the stage.

Remember those words.

Classical myths and folk takes become popular and resist the changes of time and mere fashion, because people discover that they are at heart fundamentally sound in some crucial respect, either granting an insight into something that is impenetrable by ordinary perceptions and thinking, or symbolically describing some happenstance or event of human lives that remains a mystery to science and to The O'Reilly Factor.

I was absolutely astounded just the other day, when I heard that runaway from London City, Piers Morgan, give it away on television, that Western governments (and he quickly implicated England and MI6 by name also in his words) 'use everything at their disposal, all their resources, and throwing all their efforts' behind 'undermining the capability of people who might finance Islamic terrorism...'

Oh dear. I know what that means. It means that certain people are justifying criminal acts and illegal practices, in the name of destabilizing foreign terrorists, with possible negative effects on – quite possibly – totally innocent and uninvolved bystanders including bystanding corporates.

Same Russian Ballerina

Meanwhile, no doubt Standard Chartered Bank must be playing official double agent and handing over commissions from Iran secretly to the City of London somewhere, does it?

So am I saying that Syria and Iran are nations that have moral right on their side? What a laughable thought. No, indeed no. They are scandalously immoral. Moreover both practice computer attack strategies and tactics that harm and injure us 'ordinary man-in-the-street' folk.

What I am saying is that one ought not to assume that those who have their dirty little hands all around all the levers of State in their official capacities over here on the 'good side,' do so for only purely honourable and altruistic reasons that we would all approve of and applaud.

If, like me, you spent a few seconds wondering why the Russians really are supporting those miscreants in Syria, let me suggest to you that it might be because in listening in on what is being said inside Whitehall in private rooms and chambers, it must have occurred to the 'Czar Valdimir the First of This Century' – following which he consulted with Roman Abramovich and his colleague George Soros – that the fair thing to do in the circustances, was to interpose some hindrances in the way of Karl Rove and his artistes of propaganda, as he, Rove, creeped his way around Europe infecting politicians everywhere with the Gospel of Libertisation. And let me hint, that the power of the Greeks, as always, resides in and at that moment where they appear to drift into the twilight... My money is not on Germany. And as we see profits drops everywhere, no miracle will alter that fate even for Germans either. Stay away from Germany and German companies. Just a guess, of course.