Scene Of The Crime

If you read pretty much all of the news services and business and finance news services out there you will never, ever, get actual ‘inside’ information and you’ll always be the last to arrive at the ‘scene of the crime,’ as it were. From what I can see, more or less all of the well-known economic commentators around today are reacting to and reflecting on already known facts which in effect are already past history by the time people start talking about it. I think we all know this.

But this is not for the usual reasons everyone assumes. There is a bigger reason.

People genuinely on the inside are creating the next ‘fact’ of the economic world as it will appear in tomorrow’s newspapers. The 'inside' doesn't really consist of 'facts;' not fully formed ones anyway.

This car will not be built -
because the MD, Dany Bahar, got sacked.
What a shame.

These people are taking on important risk, and no reporter or commentator has the same understanding of risk and consequently, even if or where they hear about it there is an amazing reluctance to say anything until far too late.

“This cannot be.” “This will never happen.” “He’s crazy.” Or better yet, “he’s weird.”

And then you get: “I knew about it...” “My editor refused to run it...”

You want to be at the scene of the crime, and preferably before the crime is committed.

There is no story in Russia.

There is no story about oil.

There is no story about the debt ceiling in the US.

And there are a very large number of other things – events, incidents, ‘troubles,’ ‘issues’ – that you will see in the media this week and next week too, and none of them are stories you need to be concerned about or take a great interest in.

Deadly Ebola is just a thing in a Michael Crichton book written about forty years ago.

The story will become the story all too late – after everything you thought you knew comes crashing to the ground. And then you will ‘know’ something different to what you knew before – when you were being assuredly very fully informed...

The crimes are being planned and plotted even as we speak. Or read.